ICO April 2020 Report: Coffee Group Prices Diverge In April While Volatility Increases

ICO’s introduced its April 2020 report with the following:

In April 2020, the ICO composite indicator decreased by 0.1% to 108.91 US cents/lb as prices for the Mild Arabica indicators rose while prices of Robusta and Brazilian Naturals fell. The volatility of the ICO composite indicator increased by 1 percentage point to 10.6% as the volatility of all group indicators grew in April 2020. Global exports fell by 3.7% to 11.06 million bags in March 2020 and shipments in the first six months of coffee year 2019/20 decreased by 3.9% to 61.96 million bags. In coffee year 2019/20, our estimate of global coffee consumption has been revised to 166.06 million bags, which represents an increase of 0.5% compared to 165.27 million bags in 2018/19. As a result, production is expected to exceed consumption by 1.95 million bags.

In April 2020, the ICO composite indicator averaged 108.91 US cents/lb, 0.1% lower than in March. After reaching a high of 113.86 US cents/lb on 15 April, the daily indicator price declined over the next two weeks and reached a low of 103.63 US cents/lb on 27 April. Concerns over disruptions to the supply chain are being weighed against the uncertainty over the future of demand in this unprecedented situation.

Prices for both Mild Arabica group indicators trended upwards in April 2020. Other Milds rose by 4.2% to 154.52 US cents/lb, and Colombian Milds by 1.8% to 161.92 US cents/lb. As a result, the differential between Colombian Milds and Other Milds narrowed by 30.6% to 7.40 US cents/lb. In contrast, prices for Brazilian Naturals fell by 1.5% to 111.22 US cents/lb, resulting in a price differential of 50.70 US cents/lb from Colombian Milds and 43.30 US cents/lb from Other Milds. Robusta prices also fell in April 2020, averaging 63.97 US cents/lb, 5.2% lower than in the previous month. This also represents the lowest monthly average for Robusta prices since June 2006 when it reached 60.23 US cents/lb.

Read more of the report here.

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